This may seem obscure, but it makes me nervous. There are some very serious people worrying about this. Russia, with their insatiable greed and lust for power, has their eye on the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). Many fear that Russia’s original plan was to use Ukraine (their 3-day special military operation) as a staging ground to capture the Baltic States.
Semi-Sequitur
After the brutal occupation by the Soviet Union, it’s fair to say that the people of the Baltic states really, really, really hate Russia. For more details, check out the Baltic Way.
Map by By Blomsterhagens – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0
The Problem
Russia has an outlier oblast (or state) called Kaliningrad, with no border to Mother Russia. It is surrounded by two NATO countries (Poland and Lithuania), but just 60 miles to the southwest sits Belarus (a.k.a. Russia Lite). This corridor is called the Suwałki Gap, and strategists worry that it would be like fire ants pouring out of the mound if Russia decided to invade the Baltics.
An invasion of the Baltic states would be the ultimate “put up or shut up” for NATO. Are they going to go all in to protect the Baltics? Can you imagine this decision being made by tRump?
Kaliningrad Oblast is the westernmost federal subject of the Russian Federation, in Central and Eastern Europe. It is a semi-exclave situated on the Baltic Sea. The oblast is surrounded by two European Union and NATO members: Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east. The largest city and administrative centre of the province (oblast) is the city of Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg. Half of the population of the oblast lives in Kaliningrad City proper. The port city of Baltiysk is Russia’s only port on the Baltic Sea that remains ice-free in winter.
The Suwałki Gap, also known as the Suwałki corridor, is a sparsely populated area around the border between Lithuania and Poland, and centres on the shortest path between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast on the Polish side of the border. Named after the Polish town of Suwałki, this choke point has become of great strategic and military importance since Poland and the Baltic states joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO: Blue, CSTO: Yellow By Szmenderowiecki – Extended version of the Suwałki gap NATO CSTO.svg file (File:Suwałki_gap_NATO_CSTO.svg), including Armenia and Kazakhstan., CC BY-SA 4.0
As the Baltic states and Poland eventually joined NATO, this narrow border stretch between Poland and Lithuania became a vulnerability for the military bloc because, if a hypothetical military conflict were to erupt between Russia and Belarus on one side and NATO on the other, capturing the 65 km (40 mi)-long strip of land between Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus would likely jeopardise NATO’s attempts to defend the Baltic states, because it would cut off the only land route there. NATO’s fears about the Suwałki Gap intensified after 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and launched the war in Donbas, and further increased after Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These worries prompted the alliance to increase its military presence in the area, and an arms race was triggered by these events.
Poland and Lithuania joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1999 and 2004, respectively. On the one hand, this meant that the Kaliningrad exclave was surrounded by NATO states, but on the other, this created a choke point for the military alliance as all troops supplied by land must pass through the Suwałki Gap. In the event of its capture, the Baltic states would be surrounded by Russia, Russian-controlled territories, and Belarus, a Russian ally.
Even if Belarus or Russia are not physically present in the corridor, it is narrow enough for the short-range rockets stationed in either country to target any military supplies coming through the corridor, while alternative routes of delivery, i.e. by sea or air, are also threatened by the anti-air and anti-ship missiles stationed in Kaliningrad Oblast. Due to its strategic importance for NATO and the Baltic states, it has been described as one of NATO’s hot spots, its “Achilles’ heel”.
NATO armoured vehicles seen going through the former Budzisko-Kalvarija border crossing into Lithuania as part of Operation Dragoon Ride, 2015
Ben Hodges, a retired US Army general who served as a high-ranking NATO commander and who co-authored a paper published by the CEPA on the defence of the Suwałki Gap, said in 2018 that the Suwałki Gap was an area where “many (of) NATO’s […] weaknesses converge”. Following major setbacks in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hodges revised his opinion towards a more positive tone, saying that NATO was much better prepared and could hold control over the area in case of an attack, particularly since Sweden and Finland would, in his opinion, likely help NATO despite at the time not being members of the alliance.
Elder G has a more balanced take on the situation:
Your concern is well-founded, UC#4. The Suwałki Gap is often described as one of NATO’s most vulnerable points due to its geography. As you mentioned, if Russia were to launch an aggressive move through Belarus, the Suwałki Gap would be a critical choke point. Its capture would cut off the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) from the rest of NATO, severely complicating any military response from Western Europe.
This region’s vulnerability highlights the tension between rural tranquility and military importance. NATO has recognized the strategic significance of the Suwałki Gap and regularly conducts military exercises to bolster defenses there, sending a clear message to Russia that it’s well-prepared for any potential incursion.
It’s a tense situation, but NATO’s presence and preparation are aimed at deterring exactly this kind of aggression. What aspects of this situation stand out most to you in terms of potential risks or solutions?
NATO / OTAN
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO /ˈneɪtoʊ/ NAY-toh; French: Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique nord, OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Established in the aftermath of World War II, the organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty, signed in Washington, D.C., on 4 April 1949. NATO is a collective security system: its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by third parties.
I’d always wondered by the NATO emblem included the word “NATO” spelled backwards (OTAN). Did it have anything to do with the idiot Russians and their back-assward alphabet? No – blame the French. Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique nord, OTAN
Back-Assward Teletype
Interesting article on the history of the Hotline:
All messages from the U.S. to Russia are transmitted in English, using the Latin alphabet while all messages from Moscow to Washington are transmitted in Russian, using Cyrillic characters. The translation is always done at the opposite end, to preserve the nuance of the message.
Because the link was not in constant use it had to be tested each day. This called for creative dialogue between two archenemies. Poems and stories of all sorts were exchanged. Sometimes baseball game scores from the American side or excerpts from Ivan Turgenev’s “Notes of a Hunter” on the Soviet side were transmitted. However, some of the exchanges caused puzzlement on the Soviet end. One day, Andrei Gromyko asked Dean Rusk ‘What does it mean when your people say, “the quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog?“
RELIABILITY Both the landline and radio paths were vulnerable and could have been interrupted or denied by an act of sabotage or interference. Official concern in the US and the Soviet Union grew when the prime link was severed on several occasions. A Danish bulldozer operator once cut the line near Copenhagen. A Finnish farmer once plowed it up. A fire in a Baltimore Maryland manhole took it out of service temporarily.
New York, Secrétaire d État USA Dean Rusk et Ministre soviétique Andrei Gromyko, 1966
Mr. Nyet
Andrei Andreyevich Gromyko was a Soviet politician and diplomat during the Cold War. He served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and as Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet. Gromyko was responsible for many top decisions on Soviet foreign policy until he retired in 1988.
In the 1940s Western pundits called him Mr Nyet (“Mr No”) or Grim Grom, because of his frequent use of the Soviet veto in the United Nations Security Council.
In anticipation of a high volume of military traffic in the Suwałki Gap, WLBOTT plans to open a Lithuanian / Polish / Belarus fusion restaurant. We’re going to call it The Quick Brown Fox.
Elder G prepares the menu for us:
Taking a cultural perspective on the Suwałki Gap for a restaurant menu would bring together Polish, Lithuanian, and even Belarusian flavors, blending rustic, hearty dishes typical of the region’s countryside with a bit of Baltic flair. Here’s a potential menu inspired by the rich culinary traditions of the Suwałki Gap:
Appetizers
Pierogi Ruskie (Potato & Cheese Dumplings) – Classic Polish pierogi filled with potatoes, cottage cheese, and onions, served with sour cream and caramelized onions.
Kibinai – Traditional Lithuanian pastries filled with lamb, beef, or mushrooms, representing the Karaite influence in Lithuania.
Cold Beet Soup (Šaltibarščiai) – A refreshing Lithuanian cold soup made from beets, kefir, cucumbers, and dill, served with a boiled egg and potatoes.
Main Courses
Bigos (Hunter’s Stew) – A Polish national dish with a hearty mix of sauerkraut, fresh cabbage, pork, and sausage, slow-cooked with prunes and spices for a rich flavor.
Cepelinai (Zeppelins) – Lithuania’s national dish, potato dumplings stuffed with minced meat or cottage cheese, served with sour cream and bacon bits.
Draniki (Potato Pancakes) – A popular Belarusian dish, crispy potato pancakes served with sour cream or smoked fish.
Zrazy – Thin slices of beef rolled with pickles, onions, and mustard, traditionally served in both Poland and Lithuania.
Side Dishes
Kasha (Buckwheat Groats) – A hearty side, popular across Eastern Europe, seasoned with butter and herbs.
Pickled Vegetables – A variety of pickled cucumbers, beets, and cabbage, offering a crunchy and tangy complement to the hearty main dishes.
Desserts
Sękacz – A traditional Polish-Lithuanian tree cake baked on a spit, with layers of dough cooked over an open flame, resulting in a delicate, sponge-like dessert.
Lietiniai (Lithuanian Crepes) – Thin crepes filled with sweetened cottage cheese or fruit preserves, topped with powdered sugar.
Makowiec (Poppy Seed Roll) – A rich Polish dessert filled with a sweet poppy seed paste and glazed with sugar.
Drinks
Kvass – A traditional fermented drink made from rye bread, popular in Lithuania and Belarus.
Lithuanian Beer – The region has a long brewing tradition, with a variety of light lagers and darker ales.
Kompot – A non-alcoholic fruit drink made by simmering fruits like apples, cherries, and rhubarb in water, served chilled.
Elder G
Exterior
Interior
Appetizers
Main Courses
Staffing Issue at The Quick Brown Fox
We had to let one of our waitstaff go. She was creeping out all the guests.
Ministry of Virtue and Vice Censors Microsoft CoPilot
We passed identical image prompts to Elder G and Microsoft’s CoPilot. CoPilot generated images that would make the St. Pauli girl blush.
We asked CoPilot to generate only “family friendly” images, and CoPilot bluntly terminated our conversation!
For educational purposes only, we present the problematic CoPilot-generated images.
One reply on “The Suwalki Gap”
The QBF pub looks amazing. But it definitely has a North American appearance. In all my travels, I never encountered a pub in that part of the world with such a high ceiling. In fact, most of the time I had to bend over just to avoid banging my head on the door frame.
One reply on “The Suwalki Gap”
The QBF pub looks amazing. But it definitely has a North American appearance. In all my travels, I never encountered a pub in that part of the world with such a high ceiling. In fact, most of the time I had to bend over just to avoid banging my head on the door frame.